Tools to Driving Smarter Decisions
Trees, Flows, and Flywheels - A Practical Guide for Product Managers
Let’s talk about three key tools that can change the way we work: decision trees, flow models, and flywheels. Each offers their own unique benefits when used at the right time, and in the right way, these tools are like your best friends when it comes to navigating complexity. John Cutler recently wrote about avoiding the functional model trap, and how adding variety to your toolkit enables a more robust and resilient shared language with your team – ultimately leading to a more resilient outcome. So, here’s a guide to invaluable frameworks that have helped me in my time of need, why you should use them, and how you can start implementing them right away.
1. Decision Trees: Navigating Tough Choices
What it is: Think of decision trees as a "choose your own adventure" for product managers. It’s a simple branching model that lays out all your available options, what happens should you pick each of the options (the potential outcomes), and what you’ll need to deal with along the way (the consequences of each choice).
When to use it: Whenever you have multiple paths to choose from and need to evaluate them side by side - whether you're deciding between features to prioritise, or mapping out a series of A/B tests. Decision trees help visualise those options in a structured way.
Why it’s important: This tool forces you to weigh the outcomes of each decision upfront, stopping you from choosing a path that could come back to bite you. It can be a quick and useful way of seeing what you don’t know, so you can figure it out - it’s about being proactive, not reactive.
How to use Decision Trees:
Identify the main decision point: Start with the big question you’re trying to answer, like, “Do we focus on user retention or acquisition?”
Branch it out: For each choice, list the outcomes. Keep going until you've fleshed out all potential paths and what they could lead to.
Use data to guide you: Don’t just guess! Use customer feedback, analytics, or historical data to inform the likely outcomes.
Revisit and refine: After a decision is made, go back and update the tree based on what you’ve learned. This ensures future decisions are better informed.
2. Flows: Mapping Out the User Journey
What it is: Flow models are like a map for how users or data move through your product. In PM terms, this is all about understanding the user journey—how someone goes from discovering your product to becoming a loyal user (or not).
When to use it: Flows are especially useful when you’re trying to improve user experience or optimise internal processes. Want to smooth out the onboarding process? Map it. Need to fix a data bottleneck? A flow model will show you where things are getting clogged.
Why it’s important: By visualising the user journey, you can pinpoint where things are going wrong—whether it’s user drop-offs during onboarding or confusion over how to use a key feature. These models can help reduce friction and make the experience more seamless.
How to use Flow Models:
Start with the user journey: Define the key steps a user goes through in your product, from sign-up to regular use.
Map interactions: Include every touchpoint—whether it’s a click, form submission, or customer service interaction.
Highlight friction: Use analytics (data) & user research (in situ insights) to find out where users are dropping off or having issues. Maybe there’s a confusing feature, or maybe onboarding takes too long. These are the areas to optimise.
Refine the flow: After making changes, revisit the flow model and see how those changes impact the overall journey.
3. Flywheels: Building Momentum for Long-Term Growth
What it is: A flywheel is all about creating momentum. Once you get it going, it takes less effort to keep it spinning. In product terms, it’s a self-reinforcing loop where each part of the process drives the next: engagement leads to advocacy, which leads to acquisition, which leads to more engagement, and so on.
The Disney Flywheel always comes to mind, but here’s some more product-related examples to give you an idea of what flywheels could look like.
https://productstrategy.co/the-ultimate-guide-to-product-strategy/
When to use it: Flywheels are best for businesses where long-term customer relationships are the priority. For example, SaaS companies use flywheels to build sustainable growth loops through user retention and advocacy.
(I found this particularly useful when trying to visualise how each function is linked to each part of the process - it really drilled in the need for cross-functional working and how we could drive outcomes.)
Why it’s important: The magic of a flywheel is that it scales itself over time. By investing in the right areas—like customer satisfaction or community-building—you can create a cycle that feeds on itself, driving consistent growth without the need for constant new investment.
How to use Flywheels:
Identify your key drivers: What are the key actions that lead to growth in your product? For a SaaS product, it could be successful onboarding, engagement with core features, and user referrals.
Link the stages: Make sure each stage of the flywheel feeds into the next. For example, good onboarding leads to higher engagement, which results in more referrals, which brings in new users who go through the same cycle.
Monitor the data: Track metrics at each stage. If one stage (e.g. engagement) isn’t performing well, the whole flywheel could slow down. This data helps you focus on the right improvements.
Optimise the highest-leverage areas: Put more resources into stages that have the biggest impact on other stages. For example, if improving customer support increases user retention, double down on support.
Final Thoughts
Each of these frameworks—decision trees, flows, and flywheels—offers a powerful way to break down complex problems, optimise the user experience, and build long-term growth. They’re flexible - whether you’re launching a new product, refining an existing one, or just trying to figure out your next move, these tools can adapt to your specific needs. The key is to keep them evolving based on data, feedback, and changing market conditions.
So next time you’re stuck trying to make a big decision, streamline a messy process, or drive growth, I’d recommend flexing through these functional frameworks.